Premier League 2022/23: What do the xG Stats Tell Us?
The Premier League season may be done and dusted for another year, but the world’s finest league continues to hog the headlines. Be it the latest transfer rumours, or the newest arrivals on the ever-revolving managerial merry-go-round, the Premier League continues to generate news stories over the peak summer months.
As well as looking forward to what lies ahead in terms of incomings and outgoings, the off-season is the ideal time to pore over the season just gone in an effort to put the achievements of the sides into perspective. Always an interesting endeavour for football fans in general, this type of analysis can be particularly useful for bettors eyeing up the best new betting sites in the UK, with a view towards spotting any trends ahead of the 2023/24 campaign.
xG Points Guide the Way
When looking back at the season, one of the most informative metrics is that of xG points. Taking the widely discussed Expected Goals (xG) statistic as its base, xG points aims to predict how many points each of the sides “should” have achieved over the course of the season based upon the quality of the chances they both created and conceded.
Actual League Table vs xG Points Table
| Pos | Team | Points | xG Points | Diff | xG Points Position | Difference2 |
| 1 | Manchester City | 89 | 83.04 | 5.96 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 84 | 72.53 | 11.47 | 2 | 0 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 75 | 66.4 | 8.60 | 6 | -3 |
| 4 | Newcastle United | 71 | 71.67 | -0.67 | 3 | 1 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 67 | 67.37 | -0.37 | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 62 | 70.86 | -8.86 | 4 | 2 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 61 | 54.37 | 6.63 | 9 | -2 |
| 8 | Tottenham Hotspur | 60 | 57.6 | 2.40 | 8 | 0 |
| 9 | Brentford | 59 | 58.26 | 0.74 | 7 | 2 |
| 10 | Fulham | 52 | 39.24 | 12.76 | 16 | -6 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 45 | 44.24 | 0.76 | 13 | -2 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 44 | 52.28 | -8.28 | 10 | 2 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 41 | 35.01 | 5.99 | 19 | -6 |
| 14 | West Ham United | 40 | 51.62 | -11.62 | 11 | 3 |
| 15 | AFC Bournemouth | 39 | 34.73 | 4.27 | 20 | -5 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 35.05 | 2.95 | 18 | -2 |
| 17 | Everton | 36 | 40.71 | -4.71 | 14 | 3 |
| 18 | Leicester City | 34 | 45.07 | -11.07 | 12 | 6 |
| 19 | Leeds United | 31 | 40.58 | -9.58 | 15 | 4 |
| 20 | Southampton | 25 | 36.47 | -11.47 | 17 | 3 |
Key Findings
Manchester City Worthy Winners
Arsenal may have led the way for much of the season, but as many anticipated, Manchester City ran them down in the end, and the stats show that they thoroughly deserved to. Five points clear of the Gunners, they were fully 10.5 clear on the xG stats. With few signs of weakness, they will start as red-hot favourites to make it four in a row next term.
Leeds, Leicester and Southampton “Unlucky” to Go Down
It will come as scant consolation to the Elland Road faithful, fans of the Foxes, or Saints supporters but – according to the xG Points table – neither Leeds United, Leicester City or Southampton were amongst the three worst sides in the table – sitting 15th, 12th, and 17th respectively in the xG Points standings. Based on their overall level of performance, it would be a surprise were at least one of those sides not to make an immediate return.
Three sides unlucky to go down, of course means that three sides were fortunate to stay up. That dubious honour fell to Nottingham Forest, Wolverhampton Wanderers, and Bournemouth in 22/23. Of that trio Bournemouth – with an xG points total of just 34.73 – would look the most vulnerable next season.
Arsenal, Fulham, and Manchester United the Big Overachievers
The Gunners undoubtedly made huge strides this year, but possibly weren’t so much superior to the likes of Newcastle United and Brighton as the final points tally would suggest. With Liverpool and Chelsea amongst the sides widely expected to improve next season, Mikel Arteta’s men may have a battle on their hands to stay in the top four. Similar comments apply to Manchester United, who would have finished down in sixth if they had performed to xG expectations.
The big overperformers were, however, Marco Silva’s Fulham side. Comfortably in mid-table this season, they look the most likely of the three promoted sides to suffer from the dreaded “second season syndrome” and could be looking over their shoulders next term.
Brighton on the Rise, West Ham Better than Finishing Position
Considering Brighton have just qualified for Europe for the first time in their history, it seems churlish to suggest things could have been even better. Nevertheless, the Seagulls were the fourth-best side in the country according to xG, and as such, can count themselves slightly unfortunate to miss out on the Champions League.
West Ham, meanwhile, really shouldn’t have been embroiled in the relegation battle for as long as they were. The fact that the Hammers pulled clear in the end was no surprise, given that their overall levels were those of a mid-table side. If able to enjoy a productive summer, the top half may beckon in 2023/24.
