How to Use Analytics When Making Your NBA Picks
If you’re looking to make smart NBA picks, you need to know how to use analytics. In this blog post, we’ll show you how to use numbers and data to give yourself an edge when making your picks. Whether you’re a casual fan or a die-hard hoops junkie, this post will help you up your game. So let’s get started!
Overview
Making smart NBA picks requires more than just a passion for the game. Being able to analyze and interpret data effectively is critical in making informed decisions when it comes to deciding which team to back. Analytics has become an essential tool for NBA bettors, as it allows them to identify trends and patterns that can give them an edge in their decision-making. Being able to interpret the data and apply it to your picks accurately is key in giving yourself an edge over other bettors.
How To Use Advanced Stats
Advanced stats can provide basketball fans with valuable insights into their favorite teams and players. If you’re looking to dig deeper, two of the more popular advanced stats are offensive and defensive ratings and true shooting percentage.
Offensive rating attempts to measure a player’s efficiency on offense and takes into account points, rebounds, assists, steals, and other factors. The higher the number, the more effective a player is on offense.
The defensive rating considers a player’s skill set when it comes to turnovers, blocks, personal fouls, defensive rebounds, etc. while attempting to defend his opposite number in a particular game or throughout a season.
True shooting percentage factored in free throws made by players that demonstrate how efficient they are at shooting from the field.
Calculating all three of these metrics for individual players or entire teams over time can give you an idea of momentum shifts throughout a game or season.
How Player Matchups Can Affect Your Picks
Matchups can be used to determine the likelihood of certain players performing well against a certain team or individual defender. This can help you make more informed predictions about a team’s chances of success.
For instance, a player who has historically had difficulty scoring against a certain team may not be the best option for your pick if that same team is their opponent in the upcoming game. Similarly, if two players have traditionally performed well when playing each other, picking one of them as your pick could increase your odds of success.
Another area where analyzing player matchups can come in handy is when predicting which teams will have an advantage over their opponents. If a specific player on one team usually performs better against a certain defender or team than his counterparts on the other side of the court, it could provide an edge for that squad on paper.
Home Court Advantage
Home-court advantage is an important concept to consider when making your NBA picks and can heavily influence the outcome of a game. Put simply, home-court advantage means that the home team has a statistically significant edge in performance when playing on their home court. This edge can be attributed to many factors, such as playing in familiar surroundings or having the crowd behind them.
The evidence for home-court advantage is abundant, with research from the NBA showing that teams win roughly 55-60% of games when playing at home, compared to 45-50% for away games.
For example, the Brooklyn Nets have consistently performed better at home than on the road. This means that betting on them when they play at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center could be a wiser decision than backing them in an away game.
Beyond just wins and losses, data shows that teams tend to score more points and shoot better percentages when they are playing at home. For example, shooting percentages tend to increase by around 4-7%, while points scored per game increase by an average of 5-9%.
When making your bets, it’s important to take into account these differences between away and home games to give yourself the best chance of success. If a team typically plays well at home but is set to face a tougher opponent on their turf, you may want to give them extra credit as they could have a better chance than expected due to their local support system. Likewise, if a team usually plays poorly away from home but is matched up against a weaker opponent in an away game, then you may want to adjust your expectations, as they could struggle without their usual boost from the crowd.
